LITTLE ROCK (AP) Arkansas in 2020 will look different in ways that will strain state services and programs if government agencies and advocacy groups don't prepare for the near future, according to a study conducted for the Legislature and released Tuesday.
In 12 years, Arkansas' profile will be distinguished by huge numbers of older residents and a Hispanic population almost three times its 2000 census count, according to the study, conducted by university faculty from around the state.
David G. Underwood, associate vice president of academic affairs at Arkansas Tech University and one of six people who produced the study, said he hoped the work would help provide state agencies, legislators and community groups with tools to "make this meteor move before it hits us."
Sen. Shane Broadway, D-Bryant, who initiated the study in 2005, said each state agency should consider creating strategic plans based on the findings. He said the Legislature in 2009 could then fund state services more efficiently to address the greatest needs and priorities, as set by the agencies.
The study, titled Arkansas 2020, predicted that the state population overall would increase from 2,673,400 in 2000 to 3,060,219 in 2020 for a 14.5 percent rise. Older Arkansans would make up 30.9 percent of the total population, up from 23.6 percent in 2000. In addition, Hispanics would account for 6.7 percent of Arkansans 240,404 up from 3.2 percent eight years ago at 86,866.
While older people become a greater percentage of overall population and younger groups drop only slightly, the percentage of working-age Arkansans would decline. According to the study, Arkansans, ages 20 to 54, will make up 42.4 percent of the total population, down from 48 percent in 2000. Younger Arkansans, ages 15-19, will drop to 26.7 percent in 2020, down from 28.4 percent eight years ago.
The increasing numbers of older Arkansans will require new or expanded social services, for example, while the greater number of Hispanics, many of whom do not speak English, will require the state to hire or train more bilingual workers, the study says.
Underwood noted that the rate of college attendance among Hispanic students in Arkansas was 20 percent lower than the rate for Hispanics nationally, suggesting educational concerns for Arkansas as the Hispanic population grows. The Arkansas 2020 study did not include estimates on illegal immigrants.
The study also suggested that, without solid planning and funding changes, the state would experience an array of problems, including a rise in chronic health conditions such as diabetes and hypertension; unmet needs among disabled children who now rely on their parents for day-to-day care; a continuing shortage of nurses; and huge numbers of vacancies among college teaching and administrative jobs due to retirement.
At Arkansas Tech, for instance, the university could lose 84 percent of its executive administrators by 2020 and 39 percent of its current full-time faculty, Underwood said. The University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff could lose 100 percent of its administrators and 53 percent of its faculty to retirement, he said.
"Right now we're probably better off than we will be in the future," Underwood said, noting that the state has no mandate to fund higher education and state funding has been declining in recent years.
The 239-page study was based on federal and state data, along with information provided by several state agencies. Faculty at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Arkansas Tech University, Arkansas State University, and the University of Arkansas campuses at Little Rock and Fayetteville coordinated the research.
On the Net:
UAMS College of Public Health www.uams.edu/coph/reports
