LITTLE ROCK Arkansas' Republicans are confident that John McCain can break the drought they've had in the state since Democrats swept statewide offices two years ago. The only thing that stands in the way might be McCain's running mate, whoever that may be.
Conservatives say the likely Republican presidential nominee would be vulnerable in Arkansas if he selects a running mate who supports abortion rights.
McCain's campaign has been weighing the impact of choosing an abortion-rights candidate such as former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge or Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat-turned-independent who will speak at the Republican convention and who has endorsed McCain. Conservative activists here push back against the idea, saying it would keep evangelicals and other abortion opponents at home on election day.
"I believe for a number of voters in Arkansas, a candidate's stance on abortion makes a big difference on how they vote or even if they vote," said Jerry Cox, president of the conservative Arkansas Family Council Action Committee. "Picking a pro-choice running mate would discourage those voters who he's relying on for help."
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee got overwhelming support in the state's Republican primary in February. Huckabee, a Southern Baptist preacher, was a favorite of many social conservatives due to his vocal opposition to abortion and gay marriage.
Even though he's not mentioned prominently in the speculation over McCain's No. 2, he still emerged as an apparent favorite among the state's 34 delegates to the Republican National Convention. As a presidential candidate, Huckabee said he'd have to think "long and hard" before he'd consider joining the ticket of a candidate supporting abortion rights, and said he couldn't ever remember supporting a candidate who supported abortion rights.
McCain, who opposes abortion rights, has already visited Arkansas twice since securing the nomination in March, and told supporters in northwest Arkansas that he views it as a swing state. In contrast, likely Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama hasn't visited since 2006 and some Democrats have said they're worried he hasn't focused enough on the state.
A poll by the University of Arkansas last year indicated that McCain may want to keep the worries of anti-abortion Republicans in mind when choosing his running mate. When asked whether they favor laws making it more difficult or laws making it easier to have an abortion, 41 percent of respondents said last year they would support making it more difficult.
Thirty-six percent said they'd prefer no change, while only 13 percent said they'd like laws making it easier to obtain an abortion.
Arkansas Republican Party Chairman Dennis Milligan wouldn't say that choosing a supporter of abortion rights would damage McCain in the state, but said it's an issue that conservatives do watch carefully with candidates. He also indicated that the impact would depend on how much the running mate would defer to McCain on the issue.
"If I believe in him enough as president, I've got to believe in who he'll pick as vice president," Milligan said.
Doyle Webb, a former state senator who is now heading the state Republican Party's efforts to get out the vote in the November election, said Republicans are also relying on McCain's contrast with Obama to get social conservatives to the polls.
"I think it would be better if he had a pro-life candidate but there will be such a contrast between Sen. McCain and Barack Obama that conservatives will vote for McCain because they know he is pro-life," Webb said.
DeMillo covers Arkansas government and politics for The Associated Press.
