LITTLE ROCK An Arkansas victory by Barack Obama wouldn't just run contrary to polls that show the Democrat trailing in the state. It would be contrary to how all other black candidates have fared in top-of-the-ticket races.
Predictions that Republican John McCain will win Arkansas' six electoral votes Tuesday aren't heartening to those who hope the state would break its string of not electing black candidates to major offices.
Though the state has produced prominent black political leaders such as former Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater and Democratic National Committee Vice Chair Lottie Shackelford, it has never elected an African-American to statewide office or to Congress.
"It says a lot about the state and whether Arkansas is ready to elect someone based on their skills and ability and not their race," said Dale Charles, head of the Arkansas NAACP.
Charles said he thinks race will be a factor if Obama loses Arkansas, but political observers say this week's election isn't the best test of how black candidates can expect to fare here.
Though the state has plenty of the white blue-collar workers Obama has struggled to win over in other states, the Illinois senator hasn't competed in Arkansas to begin with. With no visits to the state, Obama has virtually conceded a state that except when Bill Clinton was on the ballot has gone Republican the past 28 years.
Hendrix College political scientist Jay Barth said Arkansas would have seen a better test had Obama had truly competed in the state, especially given the nation's financial crisis. Though the state has tended toward the conservative side in recent presidential races, economic populism usually prevails over social conservatism, he said.
"If he had engaged in Arkansas the way he had in other states, I think the populist economic stance might have trumped that social conservatism," Barth said. "That never really happened here."
It's hard to tell how much race will be a factor in the presidential election. The University of Arkansas' annual Arkansas Poll, released last month, didn't offer any direct polling on Obama's race. In its questions about racial attitudes:
58 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed with the statement that generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class. The pollsters said 32 percent agreed or strongly agreed with that statement.
60 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed with the statement that blacks over the past few years have gotten less than they deserve, as opposed to 21 percent who agreed with that statement.
Arkansas Court of Appeals Judge Wendell Griffen said he believes Arkansas is behind other states with its lack of black statewide elected officials. Griffen, who is black, ran unsuccessfully statewide twice for seats on the Arkansas Supreme Court.
That lag is frustrating to leaders like Griffen, who points out that it comes in a state that produced former President Bill Clinton once lauded as the nation's "first black president" by novelist Toni Morrison.
"That resistance to change, that aversion to change is a significant tactic that can't be ignored when we think about the way that opinion leaders and ordinary voters approach candidates who are perceived as outside the mainstream," Griffen said.
Race, however, was likely not the dominant factor in the recent losses black candidates have suffered in statewide races. In his 2004 and 2006 runs for state Supreme Court, Griffen faced experienced, well-funded candidates while also waging a high-profile battle with a state judicial panel over the rights of judges to speak out on political issues.
And in 2002, Ron Sheffield, the first black Democrat nominated for statewide office, lost his bid for lieutenant governor to billionaire incumbent Win Rockefeller, a Republican whose father had served as governor from 1967-1971.
Griffen blamed the lack of black leadership as a reason for the state's trouble in catching up to other states economically.
"That's why we're having a migration out of Arkansas of talented young black professionals," Griffen said. "They don't see an opportunity for real long-term progress in public policy involvement if they stay here in this state."
Black leaders, however, say they think the state has a chance to improve its odds and has more African-American politicians willing to give statewide or congressional runs a try. Sen. Hank Wilkins, who is black, said he's been approached about a run for secretary of state in 2010 and hasn't ruled out the possibility.
"Arkansas over the years has become a more progressive state than it's ever been. The issues of race politics are less prevalent than they were in our previous history," said Wilkins, D-Pine Bluff. "I think there's a convergence of things that make it possible for that to happen in the future."
DeMillo covers Arkansas government and politics for the AP
Associated Press.
